Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Steps Down

After a difficult fall parliamentary session, a high-profile cabinet resignation, and declining poll numbers, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his exit as Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. It wasn’t a walk in the snow like his father, but the Prime Minister made the announcement outside his residence on a frigid Ottawa morning, where he admitted he would not be the best option for his party heading into a general election. He will remain Prime Minister until Liberal Party members select a new Leader. The Prime Minister has requested that Governor General Mary Simon prorogue parliament until March 24th, meaning that the Liberal Government can not face a non-confidence vote until then. It’s unclear whether the Liberals will have selected the next Prime Minister and Leader before parliament returns.  

The Prime Minister deferred questions about the leadership selection process to the Liberal Party, who will set the exact rules and timeline. He did refer to this process as “robust, nationwide and competitive". When asked, he also did not answer the question if members of Cabinet would have to relinquish their positions to seek the leadership.  

Prior to the 2013 leadership election, which saw Justin Trudeau become leader with nearly 80% of votes cast, the Liberals traditionally selected their Leader by delegated leadership conventions. For 2013, the rules were drastically changed. The Liberal Party of Canada became the only federal political party to eliminate membership fees, making voting for leaders open to all registered supporters. Votes were proportional per electoral district, similar to the federal Conservative voting system, seeing each riding eligible to award 100 points. Although the 2025 leadership process will need to be set by the Party’s executive, the eligibility and voting methods are set by the party’s constitution and have not changed since the 2013 contest. 

The Opposition Conservatives have called for an immediate election, with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre saying “this changes nothing” and that every leadership contender supported every policy of the Trudeau government. 

The New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh posted on X that “Justin Trudeau let you down over and over again” and said that his party is the alternative to “Conservative cuts.” 

The instability in Ottawa will no doubt have major impacts on provincial governments across the country. Prior to Christmas we saw heightened concern from Canada's provincial and territorial Premiers about the Federal Government’s approach to deal with the threat of tariffs and trade instability with the United States. This leadership vacuum, and potential response to the political instability by President-elect Trump will surely exacerbate this frustration. 

Speculation has already begun about who may likely put their names forward to try and succeed Prime Minister Trudeau to lead the Liberals. Amongst the most talked about are former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who posted on X his well wishes for Trudeau. Former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is also believed to be contemplating a run for the top job, though unsurprisingly has yet to say anything publicly about her former boss she quit working for. Others whose names have been floated include former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Transport Minister Anita Anand and current Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc. 

Ontario’s Legislature remains on break until March 3rd, but speculation remains high about the possibility of an early election. Prior to Christmas the Toronto Sun reported that this was unlikely, and the change in leadership in Ottawa will undoubtedly impact this. However an election this calendar year remains a likely possibility. 

‍