Ontario Economic and Fiscal Review, 2024

The Ontario Government released their 2024 Ontario Economic and Fiscal Review, entitled Building Ontario for You. The Fall Economic Statement (FES) highlighted key investments in infrastructure, healthcare, and continuing to build Ontario’s workforce. While last year's fiscal update was one of caution amidst global economic instability, this year's fiscal update was far more optimistic on a province that continues to grow.  

While there remained a theme of caution, often highlighting the uncertainty that faces Ontario ahead of next week’s unpredictable Presidential election south of the border, the provincial economic forecast was far more upbeat. Buoyed by a stronger economy and increased revenues, the province continues to make historic investments in Ontario’s infrastructure and growing workforce.

“Our government’s responsible approach has resulted in an improved fiscal position since the 2024 Budget, allowing us to keep taxes low, invest in infrastructure like roads, highways, hospitals and schools, and provide immediate relief to Ontario families as part of our plan to keep costs down,” said Peter Bethlenfalvy, Ontario’s Minister of Finance. “We’re going to continue investing responsibly to support Ontario’s growth and rebuild Ontario’s economy to make our province the best place to live, work and raise a family, all while reducing the debt burden for future generations.”

This year’s Fall Economic Statement was once again divided into two major themes of the Ford Government: 

• Building Ontario; and 
• Working for You

Where last year’s fall fiscal update had the province seeing red, with a significant spike in the provincial deficit from the budget’s initial forecast, this year’s fall update was the opposite. Despite projecting a $9.8 Billion deficit in Budget 2024, the province’s updated forecast will see the deficit come down by $3.2 Billion for the fiscal year. The Minister announced that the province is now forecasting a deficit of $1.5 Billion in 2025–26, followed by a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026–27. 

Building Ontario

The Ford Government continues to invest in its ambitious plan to grow Ontario’s economy by attracting record levels of investment while building on its historic public infrastructure commitments. The 2024 fall fiscal update committed $94 million as part of Phase 2 of the Life Sciences Strategy for a total investment of $146 million, helping secure the province as a global biomanufacturing and life sciences hub. The province also announced that they would be allocating an additional $100 million to the Invest Ontario Fund, bringing the fund total to $700 million, to support Invest Ontario in securing strategic investments that create jobs and drive economic growth. In addition to that, the Government announced an additional $40 million to extend the Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation Competitiveness Stream to build on Ontario’s competitive advantages in the manufacturing sector.

On top of the new announcements regarding job creation and investment, the province announced that they are increasing the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund by $100 million over the next two years, bringing total funding to $600 million annually by 2026, with an immediate $50 million increase next year. The OMPF is the primary transfer payment from the province to municipalities, which can be used toward critical infrastructure. The province also announced that they are listening to the concerns raised by the Association of Municipalities of Ontario by 

investing $1 billion for the new Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program to support essential projects that enable housing for growing communities. To further help drive new home starts, the Government is enhancing the Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund to total $825 million and offering more attractive borrowing options through Infrastructure Ontario’s municipal loan program. The Fall Economic Statement once again reiterated the province’s tireless efforts to advance key infrastructure projects, including the construction of new highways and transit, such as Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass, the Ontario Line, and the Scarborough Subway extension.

Working for You

Today’s fiscal update reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to not raise taxes while making life more affordable for everyday Ontarians. As was previously announced by Premier Ford, FES unveiled the full details on the province’s $200 tax-free rebate for all eligible adult Ontario tax filers, plus an additional $200 per eligible child under age 18 for qualifying families. The Premier and the Minister of Finance had pledged to make sure they would put more money back in the pockets of Ontario taxpayers, and the rebate appears to do just that. The update also included the extension of the temporary cuts to gasoline and fuel taxes for the fourth time, until June 30, 2025, which has saved Ontario households $380 on average over the past three years. 

While the province continues to try and make life more affordable, today’s fall economic statement also committed to continue to build and invest in the services Ontarians rely on. The province announced that they are investing $88 million to expand the Learn and Stay grants for 1,360 eligible undergraduate students that commit to practice family medicine with a full roster of patients once they graduate while also prioritizing medical school seats for Ontario residents and creating more opportunities for Ontarians who started their medical education abroad to be able to complete their postgraduate training in Ontario. The province is also Investing an additional $150 million to expand the Ontario Fertility Program which offers more timely access to specialized services and support for fertility treatment. The Government is also committing to introduce a new fertility tax credit in 2025, building on Ontario's medical expense tax credit to provide additional support for families facing high costs associated with in vitro fertilization, fertility medications, travel, and diagnostic testing.

The Ford Government once again continued its “working for workers” theme in today’s fiscal update, investing up to an additional $260 million in the current fifth round of Skills Development Fund, the biggest funding round since it launched the program in 2021. 

Upstream's Analysis

With the rumours of an early election being called next spring in full swing, the 2024 Fall Economic Statement did very little to quiet the chatter. Premier Ford and his Government have begun clearly framing the narrative of what the next election will look like, drawing a stark contrast between a Progressive Conservative Government that will grow the economy, attract investment and not increase taxes, versus a divided opposition that they frame will make life more expensive for Ontarians. The PCs were quick to point out that both opposition parties at Queen’s Park opposed the government’s decision to put money back into the pockets of Ontario taxpayers, just like they’ve continued to highlight that both parties at Queen’s Park will continue to support a carbon tax. 

Ontario’s economic growth and increased revenues could not be better timed for the Ford Government. The windfall of revenues, attributed to inflation driven increases to sales tax revenues and the Federal Government’s capital gains taxes, have allowed the PCs to make the decision to provide financial relief directly to every Ontarian without significantly impacting their fiscal situation. As the province continues its path to a balanced budget, you can expect the Government will build on this as they head into consultations for next year's budget. While they’re just rumours at this point, if an early election is called for next spring you can be certain that next year’s budget will provide the foundation of the PCs re-election platform, just as they did in 2022 and the Kathleen Wynne Liberals did in advance of their 2014 re-election. 

Budget Consultations

With today’s tabling of the 2024 Ontario Economic and Fiscal Review, the Ministry of Finance has officially opened up its consultation period for the 2025 Ontario Budget. Upstream looks forward to working with you in putting together your pre-budget submission and assisting you with the budget consultation process. If you haven’t already been in touch with Upstream regarding your pre-budget strategy, you can click here to set-up a consultation.

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